Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Oklahoma

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Oklahoma in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Oklahoma in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.4% for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.744) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.071).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4875 6.35%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4593 -1.42%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.2035 -3.14%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0996 -0.78%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.1104 -6.62%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0553 0.45%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0112 -0.26%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1559 1.34%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0034 -0.05%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.1677 0.84%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0514 -0.61%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4538 -5.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2216 -2.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0460 0.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0515 -0.40%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0992 1.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0303 -0.43%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.1232 2.42%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0615 0.78%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0533 -0.97%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0803 2.33%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0134 -0.04%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2367 -2.23%
Low Income 0.0081 0.2836 0.23%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0102 -0.05%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0844 1.31%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0050 -0.09%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.8316 15.71%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.1116 0.18%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.7619 -1.13%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0068 0.10%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0415 0.26%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0001 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0094 -0.05%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0237 -0.05%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0084 0.04%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.7572 1.67%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 44.0000 -0.81%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0387 8.22%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0535 4.61%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0878 1.67%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0133 -7.08%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0483 -23.52%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1227 46.10%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2241 18.45%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1230 -10.97%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0230 10.40%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0712 15.76%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0318 2.17%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,958 for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41528) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35570).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4851 -$1,378
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.4841 -$417
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.2061 -$648
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0909 -$481
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0766 -$464
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0578 $13
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0093 -$41
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.1671 -$388
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0034 -$21
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.1686 -$454
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0513 $358
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4535 $164
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2291 $189
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0474 -$63
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0510 $288
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0994 $403
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0307 $262
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.1476 $142
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0639 $231
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0416 -$41
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0729 -$98
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0124 -$55
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2452 $36
Low Income -332.4067 0.2914 -$97
Homeless -446.4262 0.0096 -$4
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0749 $151
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0045 -$9
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.8589 $694
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 6976.0200 $2,548
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0945 $190
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.7478 $513
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0065 -$17
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0502 $46
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0001 $2
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0106 $1
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0183 -$108
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0086 $7
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.7505 -$154
Median Days in Program 3.2489 45.0000 $146
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0387 $930
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0535 $1,728
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0878 $3,445
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0133 -$640
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0483 $197
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1227 $11,869
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2241 $12,585
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1230 $7,091
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0230 $247
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0712 $2,822
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0318 -$194

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 79.5% for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.984) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.19).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5877 -21.24%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6162 32.15%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1223 -0.86%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0382 -3.81%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0239 7.00%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0887 -12.82%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0149 3.17%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2078 -11.78%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.1081 9.21%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0615 12.15%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5068 -6.17%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1955 -3.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0809 0.59%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0621 -5.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0265 -0.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0032 0.60%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.3767 13.74%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1534 -4.67%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0395 -1.03%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0518 1.30%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0084 0.74%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.3430 7.32%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1612 12.58%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6537 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2725 1.78%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0117 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.3812 -4.94%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0350 1.72%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0337 -0.96%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.3003 2.20%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 158.0000 5.60%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 79.0000 -1.93%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.2583 -0.22%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0387 38.71%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0535 47.73%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0878 106.45%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0133 -58.18%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0483 153.32%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1227 92.94%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2241 222.48%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1230 31.74%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0230 75.52%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0712 -1.02%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0318 -43.14%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 76.5% for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.731) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.496).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4219 2.51%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4904 0.93%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2822 -0.48%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1041 1.10%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0740 -1.41%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1178 1.40%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0329 -0.96%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1863 -0.67%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0877 -0.86%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0301 -0.59%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4192 -1.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2932 -5.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0630 -1.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0685 -0.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.0712 -1.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0082 -0.10%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0548 0.58%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0603 -0.15%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0356 -0.19%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0822 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0658 -1.66%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.2658 1.19%
Low Income -0.0518 0.2630 -1.36%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0548 2.07%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0301 -0.69%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8548 9.67%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1479 0.85%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.9068 1.89%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0247 0.18%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1507 0.75%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0082 -0.10%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0164 1.34%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0027 -0.15%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.6301 -3.23%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 279.0000 0.22%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0387 -7.82%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0535 -2.50%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0878 -14.98%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0133 -13.14%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0483 -30.32%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1227 -44.20%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2241 -44.69%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1230 -35.07%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0230 6.99%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0712 8.75%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0318 1.31%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,716 for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 34455) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-25739).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4140 -$787
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.5158 $575
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2947 -$37
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0982 -$209
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0351 -$87
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1123 -$96
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0386 -$181
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.2035 -$313
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0982 -$346
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0386 -$143
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4175 -$585
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.3018 -$574
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0526 $4
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0737 $112
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0702 $82
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0070 $15
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0632 $107
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0667 $253
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0281 $8
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0667 $96
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0632 -$188
Single Parent -784.4348 0.2807 -$220
Low Income -538.7097 0.2561 -$138
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0632 $114
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0211 $4
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8632 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9129.7800 $837
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1298 $175
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.9123 $63
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0211 -$52
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1719 $30
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0070 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0035 -$7
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0035 -$15
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.6035 -$243
Median Days in Program 2.2222 273.0000 $607
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0387 -$1,053
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0535 $1,959
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0878 $4,143
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0133 -$3,455
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0483 $4,151
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1227 $11,657
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2241 $11,467
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1230 $5,408
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0230 -$104
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0712 $1,585
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0318 -$184

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.5% for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.165) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.441).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4562 -6.88%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5511 -3.61%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2336 5.64%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0949 4.35%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0657 6.00%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1168 -7.76%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0073 -0.39%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1788 -5.89%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0693 18.35%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0438 0.22%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4635 -8.91%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2518 -6.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0401 -1.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0657 1.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0839 -0.94%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0073 -0.31%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0328 -0.07%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0949 -2.51%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0255 -3.70%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0547 -5.06%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0182 0.82%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.2007 7.41%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0949 4.45%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9051 2.60%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1241 4.82%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0401 1.43%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2555 -1.57%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0146 -0.64%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0073 -2.83%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.4891 -4.71%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 255.0000 -8.19%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 178.0000 -4.87%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1898 3.07%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0387 -31.24%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0535 23.79%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0878 86.53%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0133 -77.92%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0483 58.95%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1227 196.96%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2241 160.52%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1230 18.59%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0230 150.06%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0712 -20.27%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0318 -34.46%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.4% for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.126) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.85).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5934 3.53%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1213 -1.74%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3609 -7.41%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2468 0.26%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.1084 -0.68%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0086 0.17%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.2653 -1.10%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0057 -0.30%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.1840 -6.15%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.1098 1.66%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5292 3.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0585 -1.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0157 1.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0043 0.21%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2397 6.58%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.0556 0.20%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0913 -0.43%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0157 -0.22%
Low Income 0.0375 0.8388 3.15%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0328 -0.66%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1341 0.85%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0200 -0.02%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.3509 -2.51%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5207 1.82%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.3666 -3.18%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.2482 -1.07%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.2282 1.01%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0285 -0.43%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0485 0.36%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0342 -0.12%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0528 0.19%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.5877 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.2682 0.40%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 164.0000 -0.66%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0387 -26.24%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0535 -10.05%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0878 -11.94%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0133 -9.69%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0483 -10.33%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1227 -31.36%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2241 0.55%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1230 -4.85%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0230 -24.80%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0712 23.48%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0318 -4.73%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,582 for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14137) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10555).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5856 -$1,099.40
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0000 $0.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.0928 -$121.46
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3505 -$373.82
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2680 $174.09
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1237 $236.72
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0082 $5.36
Race: Black -886.3703 0.2784 -$246.72
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0082 -$27.95
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.1732 -$31.95
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.1052 $98.12
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5505 $761.88
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0722 -$59.77
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0186 $3.21
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2887 $177.18
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.0536 $29.28
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0763 -$37.78
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0206 $50.65
Low Income -305.7985 0.8722 -$266.71
Homeless 983.9044 0.0351 $34.49
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1237 -$158.93
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0165 $16.66
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.3773 $322.42
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.4990 -$141.45
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.3237 -$204.02
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.2433 -$112.55
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.2412 $38.88
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0330 -$6.07
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0371 -$61.56
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0371 -$20.03
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0639 $6.66
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.6103 -$2.65
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.2969 -$8.28
Median Days in Program 0.5942 175.5000 $104.28
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0387 -$122.62
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0535 $587.79
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0878 $1,892.93
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0133 -$736.24
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0483 $2,165.44
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1227 $1,744.31
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2241 $4,564.99
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1230 $871.58
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0230 $1,310.19
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0712 $3,100.95
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0318 -$321.20

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 53.3% for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.86) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.327).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5579 -15.39%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0039 -0.32%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.1092 -9.86%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3750 -26.24%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.2421 -39.72%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1105 -0.19%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0184 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.2184 0.09%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.1539 -2.43%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.1092 21.54%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.5579 -15.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0697 7.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0158 -1.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0118 2.25%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.0816 0.18%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.4618 9.13%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.1118 0.22%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.3224 -2.30%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0605 1.66%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0276 1.53%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.1250 -11.08%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.2079 -1.05%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 118.5000 -3.87%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.2842 -9.78%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0387 29.49%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0535 51.18%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0878 51.20%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0133 -56.83%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0483 -68.84%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1227 177.59%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2241 158.28%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1230 77.46%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0230 116.80%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0712 -52.24%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0318 -3.71%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.3% for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.285) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.652).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4399 3.52%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4627 5.02%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2118 -1.82%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1017 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1063 -0.67%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0580 1.35%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0098 -0.23%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1365 -2.20%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0034 0.33%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.2079 -6.37%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0515 1.27%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4179 -0.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2080 0.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0384 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0400 1.40%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0915 -6.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0257 -1.35%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1276 1.10%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0753 -0.68%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0739 -2.63%
Veteran 0.2170 0.1066 2.31%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0108 -0.02%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.2158 4.38%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1615 1.49%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0108 -0.07%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0543 1.01%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0090 -0.21%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7956 25.25%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0864 -1.33%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.7705 -2.96%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0048 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0045 -0.05%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0107 1.17%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0033 -0.19%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 39.0000 -1.07%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0387 6.52%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0535 8.24%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0878 8.89%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0133 -0.61%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0483 14.33%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1227 11.57%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2241 28.75%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1230 7.28%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0230 8.97%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0712 12.10%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0318 1.10%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,835 for Oklahoma for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40443) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34609).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4385 -$1,217
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4880 $745
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2162 $48
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0970 $167
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0761 $304
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0629 $95
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0090 -$12
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1469 -$430
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0035 -$9
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.1948 -$1,084
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0489 $522
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4192 -$739
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2156 -$470
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0398 -$87
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0401 $84
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0941 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0251 -$126
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1457 $66
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0705 -$81
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0582 -$297
Veteran -913.8967 0.0948 -$87
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0120 $19
Single Parent 660.1018 0.2198 $145
Low Income 634.4633 0.1532 $97
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0092 -$32
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0485 $93
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0083 -$90
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8509 -$187
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6782.0400 $1,771
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0627 $48
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7841 $357
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0049 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0048 -$6
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0090 $98
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0034 $6
Median Days in Program 0.8717 40.0000 $35
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0387 $1,432
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0535 $2,286
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0878 $4,188
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0133 $150
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0483 $3,026
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1227 $8,328
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2241 $11,538
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1230 $5,290
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0230 $956
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0712 $3,655
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0318 -$162

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x